tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7296410208500992185.post5831466548112610842..comments2023-10-30T05:03:34.290-04:00Comments on Vinny Catalano: Technical Thursdays: It’s a Bull Market ‘til it Ain’tVinny Catalano, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13958861468295795061noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7296410208500992185.post-42548896513074169062007-09-16T21:53:00.000-04:002007-09-16T21:53:00.000-04:00What I look for is a major market top. WIthout a m...What I look for is a major market top. WIthout a major top having been formed, the technicals of the market do not indicate anything more than a correction, which is what I think we are experiencing right now.<BR/><BR/>To see what constitutes a major top, pls review my prior entries, particularly the Technical Thursday entries.<BR/><BR/>Don't who is calling for the Dow Theory to have given a sell signal. Without a divergence between the two indices, there is not sell signal.Vinny Catalano, CFAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13958861468295795061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7296410208500992185.post-16512689491072220872007-09-16T01:26:00.000-04:002007-09-16T01:26:00.000-04:00I got here because I quoted an old article from 19...I got here because I quoted an old article from 1998 with Ralph Acamoira in it in regards to the "two tumbles and a jump" idea from Fosback.<BR/><BR/>I have noticed on a few stock blogs where they do think there was a Dow Theory sell signal, but I didn't see it either and its so not my specialty.<BR/><BR/>Technically I agree, we are nowhere near a bear market or even starting one right here.<BR/><BR/>Most indexes are still above 50wma. Bear markets don't happen without price being under that avg. Nothing is saying bear market here, but there is a ton of a fear out there.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7296410208500992185.post-30868833332127337682007-09-14T18:09:00.000-04:002007-09-14T18:09:00.000-04:00Pls try to delete the cross over part from your th...Pls try to delete the cross over part from your thinking. It is only an index's price action to itself versus the other index's price action to itself.<BR/><BR/>You are right. At present, there is no divergence. Hence the title of my blog. But in mid to late 2006, there was a divergence.<BR/><BR/>The Dow Industrials make successive new highs while the Transports did not. Where it not for other factors (see my moving averages comment in the blog posting), a sell signal would have been triggered as a major divergence occurred. <BR/><BR/>In early 2007 when the Transports finally made their new high, then the divergence was negated. <BR/><BR/>One additional point - this is one of several important yet easy to follow indicators. Another would be the moving averages one I mentioned. The point is that only when several important indicators give the same signal (bullish or bearish) can a trend change be stated. That is why the bull market is intact and that I believe we are in a correction and nothing more.Vinny Catalano, CFAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13958861468295795061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7296410208500992185.post-70981772445140647992007-09-14T17:44:00.000-04:002007-09-14T17:44:00.000-04:00Okay I got it and recreated it with bigcharts. Wh...Okay I got it and recreated it with bigcharts. While I can see for the most part that there is not much divergence, what on this chart would indictate to you a clear divergenance? Would it be a crossover of the two indexes?<BR/><BR/>ThanksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7296410208500992185.post-82313974509768150192007-09-14T17:32:00.000-04:002007-09-14T17:32:00.000-04:00You're welcome.I use bigcharts.com. However, you s...You're welcome.<BR/><BR/>I use bigcharts.com. However, you should be able to do it with just about any chart service.<BR/><BR/>The time period I used is 2 years.Vinny Catalano, CFAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13958861468295795061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7296410208500992185.post-9433786583926205582007-09-14T17:30:00.000-04:002007-09-14T17:30:00.000-04:00Thanks, I really liked your article and I was tryi...Thanks, I really liked your article and I was trying to setup a chart that would replicate yours but could not. Do you have any suggestions as to how I can replicate it in stockcharts?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7296410208500992185.post-31760725647601188722007-09-14T17:19:00.000-04:002007-09-14T17:19:00.000-04:00I see what you are referring to. Let me clarify wh...I see what you are referring to. Let me clarify what I mean by divergence.<BR/><BR/>Divergence pertains to the price of one index to itself versus another index to its self. If index A makes a new high (or low) and index B also makes a new high (or low), then you have confirmation. No divergence. However, if index A makes a new high but index B does not, that a non confirmation, a divergence.<BR/><BR/>It is the price action of the index to itself compared to the price action of another index to itself that creates the confirmation or divergence.<BR/><BR/>Now look at the chart I have posted (or the one you have). Whenever a trend is in place, higher highs by one index must be confirmed with higher highs by the other index. If not, a divergence has occurred. <BR/><BR/>Does that help?Vinny Catalano, CFAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13958861468295795061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7296410208500992185.post-79554867832019885662007-09-14T16:56:00.000-04:002007-09-14T16:56:00.000-04:00Maybe I am wrong here, but if I go into stockchart...Maybe I am wrong here, but if I go into stockcharts and I put in $INDU as the main chart, and then go below and put $TRAN behind it, it clearly shows $TRAN cutting under $INDU. If I am looking at this the wrong way, please do correct me. Thank You.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7296410208500992185.post-24210493585099118542007-09-14T16:44:00.000-04:002007-09-14T16:44:00.000-04:00Where do you see the divergence? What time period?...Where do you see the divergence? What time period?Vinny Catalano, CFAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13958861468295795061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7296410208500992185.post-50773389730849598872007-09-14T16:43:00.000-04:002007-09-14T16:43:00.000-04:00I'm not sure how you created this chart, but when ...I'm not sure how you created this chart, but when I look at the $indu and $tran on stock charts there is a clear divergence.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com