Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Key US Stock Market Levels

To subscribers of my newsletter who received on Monday an equity exposure reduction before the market opened, this is a quick follow up message re key market price points.

The first price point for the S&P 500 is 1867, its closing low reached on August 25. This number is significant primarily in the minds of the more bullish among us: a stock market correction (10 to 20%) is all that the markets are going through AND a nice and neat test at or around that 1860 level would be healthy. Cleanse the system of those who dare to question the wisdom of traditional equity analysis and all will be well. From that level one could - and I would argue should - assume a bounce back rally will ensue, thereby buttressing the bull market correction belief.

The second, and far more significant, price level for the S&P 500 is 1704, for at that price point the S&P 500 will have experienced a 20% decline, which puts it in the wheelhouse of an "official" bear market. This number matters more - and subscribers to this newsletter learned in this week's report - because at that price point the probabilities jump nearly fivefold (from 15% to 73%) that a US recession will occur sometime in the near future.

Hard to believe? Certainly, considering the GDP numbers of last week and the Fed's strong view that rates must rise - not just for this year but well into next and the year after (a fact also provided in this week's report).


In next week's report, I will elaborate on the prudent investment strategy adopted thus far. Until then, the above price points will provide some guidance on what seems like the hard-to-comprehend stock market action of late. It's really not all that hard. And not that incomprehensible - if you know where and what to look for.

Note: For Non Subscribers

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Information regarding our very affordable subscription service can be found here.

To read my most recent quote in the Financial Times and to listen to my recent Bloomberg radio segment, click here.

Wednesday, September 2, 2015

Recent Media Quotes and Appearances

My two most recent media quotes (Financial Times) and appearance (Bloomberg radio) can be found on my media blog "Beyond The Sound Bite."

Friday, November 28, 2014

Media Appearances and Twitter Posts

Recent media appearances can be found on my "media blog."

Recent Twitter posts can be found "here."

Thursday, September 4, 2014

Recent Media Appearances

How nice! "Yahoo! Finance" picked up my Tuesday Wall Street Journal "News Hub" appearance.

This interview, along with my most recent Bloomberg radio appearance, can be also found on my "media blog."

The question is, "Is anyone listening?"

Monday, July 28, 2014

The "If...Then" Bomb

If the global economy were to turned down due to some unforeseen exogenous event, what could possibly be the governmental response given the fact interest rates are at 0%, central banks balance sheets are at unprecedented levels, and there is no political will for fiscal debt? In light of the fact that stocks are at valuation levels that leave little to no room for error, shouldn't a prudent investor feel some degree of concern?

To view my most recent media appearance which included what I call the "If...Then" bomb, "click here."

Monday, June 2, 2014

Recent Media Appearances

Last Tuesday's media appearances - WSJ.com, Bloomberg radio, and Business News Network - are posted.

To listen and view them, "click here."

Thursday, February 27, 2014

Nick Colas on Bitcoin

Recently, I had the pleasure of interviewing Nick as part of NYSSA's newly created video series re his upcoming NYSSA presentation on Bitcoin.

To learn more and view the interview, "click here."

Friday, February 21, 2014

You Shoulda Been There!

In case you missed it, here are two recent media and event appearances that yours truly had the privilege to be involved in:

Wednesday's Bloomberg radio segments
"Taking Stock with Pimm Fox and Carol Massar"

excerpt from NYSSA's January 9 "Market Forecast" luncheon featuring Phil "The Thrill" Orlando and Rich "IH8ARNSL" Bernstein
"NYSSA January 9"

As John Lennon might say, "A splendid time was guaranteed for all".

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Talking Head Time

8 events, 8 cities, 6 weeks.

From the raging bulls in New York to the humorous (but very insightful) comments of a fixed income expert (yes, Matilda, they do have a sense of humor) to the sanguine views of Dr. Doom himself (say what!?), my early 2014 events are in the books and ready to share with all who care.

Today, at 2:15 (eastern), I get to do exactly that on Bloomberg radio's very popular program "Taking Stock with Pimm Fox and Carol Massar". Who knows, I may actually say something of value.

To listen, click here.

Thursday, January 2, 2014

Recent Media Appearances and Upcoming Events

My recent media appearances - "Taking Stock with Pimm Fox and Carol Massar", FT.com's "Authers' Note", and "On The Money" with Steve Pomeranz, CFP - along with my early 2014 upcoming events, featuring the likes of Liz Ann Sonders, Sam Stovall, Phil Orlando, CFA, Don Rissmiller, Glenn Reynolds, CFA, Heidi Richardson, Jeffrey Saut, Dan Clifton, Shane Shepherd, Peter Petas, Rich Bernstein, Joe Kalish, Ed Clissold, Tom Tzitzouris, Matt Orsagh, CFA, Jeffrey Sherman, and a cast of Inside ETFs experts too numerous to mention, are listed on my media blog, Beyond the Sound Bite.