For What It's Worth

Improvement in near term indicators (Momentum and MACD*) strongly suggest that the overbought correction we are currently experiencing** will likely run its course shortly, the Greek tragedy notwithstanding. At that point, the rally to a new recovery high (closing above 1159 in the S&P 500) becomes the higher probability.

Should this unfold, the longer term deterioration in many other non US indices (developed and developing***) MUST reverse itself. If they do not AND the recovery highs in key US indices (S&P 500, 400, and 600) are NOT CONFIRMED by the other non US indices, you can then ring the bell as the 2Q10 correction (>10%) will most likely be the outcome.

*First chart
**Slow stochastics above 80 = overbought, below 20 oversold
***Second chart
Note: click images to enlarge

Beyond the Sound Bite: An Interview with Michael Greenberger

Can meaningful regulatory reform occur in this highly political year? Is the Obama administration on the right side of the credit derivatives argument? What is the future of financial innovation? If gaining a deeper understanding of the key issues related to financial innovation and regulatory reform is of interest*, then my second conversation with the former Director, Division of Trading and Markets, Commodity Futures Trading Commission will fit that bill.

Beyond the Sound Bite podcast interviews can be found at beyondthesoundbite.blogspot.com
To listen to this week's interview, click here

*Including the 1990's battles between Alan Greenspan, Robert Rubin, Larry Summers versus CFTC chairperson Brooksley Born re regulating OTC derivatives (Greenberger was a top aide to Born). The dust up was the central feature of the excellent Frontline segment, "The Warning".

Beyond the Sound Bite: An Interview with Dan Clifton

My interview with the Head of Policy Research for Strategas Research Partners includes an assessment of the likely electoral bloodbath in store for the Democrats this November, the state of the US states, the increasing sovereign debt crisis, and an economic policy of "kick the can down the road".

Beyond the Sound Bite podcast interviews can be found at beyondthesoundbite.blogspot.com
To listen to this week's interview, click here

Beyond the Sound Bite: An Interview with Dr. Andrew Lo

Leveraging off my first interview with the Director of MIT's Laboratory for Financial Engineering and co-author of "The Heretics of Finance: Conversations with Leading Practitioners of Technical Analysis", Dr. Lo describes the progress in his Adaptive Markets Hypothesis (AMH), the difference between AMH and game theory, the prospects of an evolution to CAPM, and some very useful resources in better understanding decision-making.

Beyond the Sound Bite podcast interviews can be found at beyondthesoundbite.blogspot.com
To listen to this week's interview, click here

Beyond the Sound Bite: An Interview with Gregory Zuckerman

I had the pleasure of conducting a most fascinating interview with the senior writer at the Wall Street Journal and author of "The Greatest Trade Ever: The Behind-the-Scenes Story of How John Paulson Defied Wall Street and Made Financial History", a book that goes well beyond its title or, as Mohammed El-Erian put it, "Greg Zuckerman's book is much, much more than a brilliant account of Paulson's trade of the century; it also provides a highly enjoyable and lucid journey through the analytical and emotional maze that constituted the financial markets on the eve of the Great Recession. The book is compulsory reading for those looking for exceptional insights on the complex forces that interconnect Wall Street, hedge funds and Main Street."

For those investors seeking to gain a better insight into how the Wall Street of today really works, this interview will help accomplish that goal.

Beyond the Sound Bite podcast interviews can be found at beyondthesoundbite.blogspot.com
To listen to this week's interview, click here