Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Potential Minor Bullish Non Confirmation

*Short term deep oversold becoming extreme (bottom segment of first chart).

*Momentum and MACD well above previous lows (second and third segments of first chart).

*Significant bullish non confirmation from selected global markets (including Europe 350) versus US (second chart).


Want to see S&P 500 break 1042 intra day low AND/OR new closing low below 1050. That would produce the new low and set up the conditions for a non confirmation.

Do not want to see 10 to 1 advance/decline to the downside today.

If above occurs, selective purchases are advisable.

Single biggest risk to above is the impending Mega Trend reversal (top segment of first chart). Possible but unlikely as it would also require other markets to confirm to the downside. For that to happen, an already deeply oversold market would have to get even more deeply oversold (as in at least another 50 points to the downside RIGHT NOW). As I said, possible but unlikely.

Note: This is a short term forecast. It does not alter the longer term view that stocks are in a distributional topping process. In fact, the current decline only makes such a view a greater probability. The world may appear to be going to hell in a hand basket, but not quite yet.

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