Tuesday, July 27, 2010

2 Down, 1 To Go

2 down:

Momentum diverging from price
Slow Stochastics (short term indicator) overbought

1 to go:

MACD still bullish, confirming price

If the first two hold when MACD rolls over, the summer bounce is likely over.*

*For a full bearish call, external divergences (inter market) must be in place as well. At present, unlike the internal divergences noted above there are no meaningful inter market (index to index) divergences. This has been a source of market strength for the summer bounce, surprising many (present company excluded). It is when both internal and external divergences develop that trend reversals have the highest probability of occurring.

Note: click image to enlarge.

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