May 17 CFA Virginia Presentation: "Beware The Next Black Swan"

Last Thursday, I had the privilege of presenting to the members of the CFA Virginia society a presentation on certain big picture issues and their tendency to produce and/or exacerbate Black Swans. This presentation is part of a newly formed think tank at The New York Society of Security Analysts that I created and is in the process of developing key concepts and producing events therefrom*. While still very much a work in progress, the research work offers much help and hope to those interested in understanding big picture issues and why current research methodologies appear to be less than fully adequate to the times we live and invest in.

Big picture issues, such as globalization, innovation, and behavioral finance, are those hard to quantify items that many (most?) investment professionals are well aware of but have little to no ability to put into their valuation models because they are ... (you guessed it) hard to quantify. Investors know they matter but just how does one incorporate a changed market structure into a CAPM? You can't, therefore, you don't, therefore, when they have this nasty way of bringing about and/or exacerbating a Black Swan you are surprised.

As I said, this is a work in progress and there is much left to do. Thus far, however, the two presentations made to CFA members of Virginia and Nashville (March 28)** have produced very useful comments and suggestions and NO PUSH BACK on the main points. So far, so good.

To view the presentation, click here

Note: Comments and other feedback are most welcome.
*Beginning with an Oxford style debate series at NYSSA this coming October. More details to follow.
**As well as to average investors at The Money Show (May 16).