Hold Your Fire

excerpts from this week’s report:



"Keep your powder dry. Wait until you see the whites of their eyes.

Whatever the cliché that suits your mood, the bottom line is that the short term technicals to the market are not set up for a buy call.

As the chart on the next page show (see report), the short-term indicators of momentum and MACD, which have been nothing short of excellent market timing tools, are not signaling that its time to enter or add to the market.

Enabling an investor to pick the close to ideal entry or exit point for a position has been the hallmark of knowing how to read this investment tool Therefore, as much as I want to add to current positions, the indicators argue against doing so until the above noted cliché moment arrives.

Here are the specifics re what these tools are saying about the market right now:..."

Expected Return Valuation Model

"What is glaring is the fact that over the life of the current bull market adjusting the basic Fed Model by increasing its capitalization factor by 80 to 100 basis points has proven to provide a realistic expectational valuation level. If that be the case, then the current capitalization level (noted in yellow) produces an $82 operating earnings number for the next twelve months, which is a nearly 11% decline in operating earnings from the 2007 consensus of $92. I know of no one except the super bears who are..."

also in this week's report:

* Model Growth Portfolio
* Investor Sentiment Data
* Sectors and Styles Market Monitor
* Key US Economic Indicators

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