Monday, March 3, 2008

Woe is Me (and you, and just about everyone else)

excerpts from this week's report:

"...valuation levels make it difficult to impossible for a rational investor to conclude that even a worse case scenario has not been priced into the market. But, then again who is to say that rational investors will rule the near-term day when fear, a strong component of irrational decision-making, is strong and getting more so. What’s worse is when fear is rooted in ignorance, or at least the lazy, superficial commentary that passes for analysis one hears so frequently in the media these days. I am specifically referring to the self-reinforcing nature of mark to market valuation and its downward spiral effect..."

Investment Strategy Implications

"The great risk is a seemingly never-ending parade of acronym disasters that come about due to a mark-to-market valuation method only. Should this mark-to-market only valuation madness not cease, a graveyard-like spiral will almost certainly drive fear higher and prices lower thereby overshooting any sane semblance of fair value..."

also in this week's report:

* Expected Return Valuation Model
* Moving Averages Scorecard
* Model Growth Portfolio
* Sectors and Styles Market Monitor
* Key US Economic Indicators

*To gain access to this week's report (and all reports), click on the subscription information link to your left.

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