Monday, April 28, 2008

If Not Now, When?

excerpts from this week's report:

"While most investors are rightfully focused on economic and domestic political matters, it would behoove all not to lose sight of the increasingly probable event of a military strike on Iran before George Bush leaves office. An attack on Iran stands an even higher probability this year if “bomb, bomb, Iran” McCain does not win this fall..."

Investment Strategy Implications

"Exogenous events, such as terrorist attacks, might be hard for some investors to prepare for but not hard for seasoned investors to incorporate into the equity valuation equation..."

" is difficult to understand why the risk appetite for investors has recently increased (as the reduction in the VIX has recently shown) when so much remains so uncertain. For this reason (and for several others, including the far from resolved credit crisis), I have not adjusted the risk parameters in the Expected Return Valuation Model (see report*).

By not adjusting the risk parameters the market has eliminated its undervalued level of the past months and now sits just a touch over fair value**. Not enough to warrant a reduction in the fully invested position of the Model Growth Portfolio (see page 5 of the report*). At least, not yet..."

also in this week's report:

* Expected Return Valuation Model
* Moving Averages Scorecard
* Model Growth Portfolio
* Sectors and Styles Market Monitor
* Key US Economic Indicators

*To gain access to this week's report (and all reports), click on the newsletter subscription information link to your left.
**click on image to enlarge.

No comments: