Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Advantage: McCain

If today’s primary results hold to expectations, the Republicans will gain one vitally important advantage regarding the general election this fall – time.

The likelihood that neither Democratic candidate will emerge from Super Tuesday as the prohibitive favorite means that both Clinton and Obama will have to continue to slug it out for weeks and months to come (possibly right up to the convention). And, in the process, use up considerable resources (time and money) battling each other. On the other hand, if John McCain becomes the presumptive Republican candidate, he can then focus on refining his general election message, shoring up his support among suspicious conservative voters, and replenish his depleted coffers by not having to spend serious sums of money for future primaries.

Investment Strategy Implications

It’s far too early to know what the investment implications are regarding the fall election outcome. One thing is fairly clear, however: should today’s outcome leave one person standing in either (but not both) party, that person gains a considerable advantage over his/her opponent. And that person is looking increasingly like Senator John McCain.

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