Tuesday, February 19, 2008

January Lows May Not Be Tested

excerpts from this week's report:
"The consensus view is that the market is in the midst of a bear market rally. Therefore, the next move should be to the downside. The question among consensus thinkers is that when (not if) the market makes that move, it will test the January lows and then potentially set a market bottom enabling a sustainable advance. The contrarian in me wonders, however, if this isn’t just a little too neat and tidy, in keeping with the full year estimates of most strategists and investors. Therefore,

What if the January lows are not tested?

This, of course, begs the question, what is the basis to believe that the lows will not be tested? The answer lies both in the present and in the not too distant past, specifically 1990 - the last consumer-led recession.

The evidence from the present is rooted primarily in two factors.."

also in this week's report:

* Expected Return Valuation Model
* Moving Averages Scorecard
* Model Growth Portfolio
* Sectors and Styles Market Monitor
* Key US Economic Indicators

*To gain access to this week's report (and all reports), click on the subscription information link to your left.

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